Whales Are Stacking BTC at Their Most Serious Pace Since 2016
Theya is the world's simplest Bitcoin self-custody solution. With our modular multi-sig vaults, you decide how to hold your keys.
Whether you want all your keys offline, shared custody with trusted contacts, or robust mobile vaults across multiple iPhones, it's Your Keys, Your Bitcoin.
Download Theya on the App Store.
the cliff-notes:
- Chart 1: Bitcoin Whales Accumulation
- Chart 2: Bitcoin vs. Gold Miners Performance
- Chart 3: S&P 500 Weekly % Change
- Chart 4: Bitcoin-S&P 500 Correlation
Good afternoon Theya users,
Bitcoin whales are stacking relentlessly. I avoid hyperbole when I'm breaking down market behavior, especially in bitcoin which is awash with it, but here it's accurate to say. Here is the number of entities with a balance of 1,000+ bitcoin. These entities are not single addresses, rather they are clusters of addresses that are controlled by the same network entity. Glassnode's proprietary algorithms estimate these entities. Here's a link to the metric on Glassnode.
The chart shows that entities holding at least 1,000 BTC, known as whales, are accumulating at a pace not seen since 2016. The 30-day rate of change (highlighted in purple) underscores this trend. It is worth noting that individual whale addresses are showing less of a serious accumulation trend. For this analysis, I'm leaning on Glassnode's aggregation to draw my conclusions.
Note the latest purple accumulation period. The width of the spike shows the persistence with which whales have been stacking bitcoin, and the height of the spike shows the rapid pace they've been stacking at.
These entities typically accumulate heavily at the start of bull markets, where Bitcoin is perceived as undervalued, and distribute as the bull market progresses. This behavior we're seeing now suggests a strategic buildup in anticipation of further upside rather than distribution in advance of expected downside, hinting at an optimistic outlook among large holders:
Since bitcoin's 2022 market bottom, bitcoin miners have surged by 193%, while gold miners have seen less than a 50% rise over the same period. This stark contrast points to a clear preference for bitcoin mining investments. Moreover, it reflects a broader trend where bitcoin mining is increasingly seen as a superior investment in the private sector compared to traditional gold mining, highlighting the evolving landscape of commodity mining.
The geopolitical implications are significant. Countries need to develop robust strategies to attract bitcoin mining capital allocators to their nation and not others. Game theory is playing out in real-time, and the sovereigns too ignorant or dismissive of it will be kicking themselves years from now. Seriously, what other commodity would see an increase in its public stock prices in the years leading up to a predetermined and irreversible reduction in its supply schedule? Capital allocators have an important choice to make. It's clear what they're choosing:
The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, marking the longest streak since February. Strong corporate earnings, particularly from tech giants like Nvidia, and positive developments in the AI sector have driven this rise. The deceleration in inflation has renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts, with expectations moving from early 2025 to late 2024. Despite some underlying consumer weakness, the market remains buoyant, bolstered by the Fed and US government having its finger on the stimulus trigger if risk sentiment turns sour:
Bitcoin's 40-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has recently increased. Historically, a drop in this correlation precedes massive runs for bitcoin, and a decline signals market tops. Given its small size compared to other risk, it can appreciate 250%+ trough to peak during bull markets—that's generally when this correlation declines. So why on earth does the BTC-SPX correlation rising not suggest we've already topped?
Given my positive outlook for the rest of the year in risk, which I've talked about plenty recently, I view the strengthening BTC-SPX correlation as a signal that the entire risk bucket stands to do very well this year. Bitcoin's gains may be more muted than many expect, more muted than prior cycles. This doesn't worry me:
Given what I view as strategic accumulation by whales, superior performance of bitcoin miners even post-halving, and strong sentiment in traditional equities. I add to my view that this is going to be a risk-on summer, albeit a choppy, stairstep one, particularly for bitcoin.
Final thought: have an excellent weekend everyone, try to catch some rays.
Take it easy,
Joe Consorti
Theya is the world's simplest Bitcoin self-custody solution. With our modular multi-sig vaults, you decide how to hold your keys.
Whether you want all your keys offline, shared custody with trusted contacts, or robust mobile vaults across multiple iPhones, it's Your Keys, Your Bitcoin.
Download Theya on the App Store.