Unpacking Bitcoin's Best Week In History

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Cliff-Notes:

• Bitcoin has surged 36% in the past month to $90K, breaking out of its range in a historic rally and consolidating at $90K in a likely setup for further gains.
• Institutional inflows, sovereign accumulation, and ETF demand nearing $100B in AUM are driving unprecedented momentum, as bitcoin’s trajectory aligns with prior four-year cycles.
• Long-term, bitcoin’s absolute scarcity and superior monetary properties position it to surpass gold, potentially reaching parity at $1M per BTC.

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This past Monday, November 11th, marked bitcoin’s largest one-day price move in history. It surged $8,086 in a single day, breaking the previous record set just days earlier, when it rose $6,776. What’s driving this explosive momentum? A whole suite of factors: a pro-bitcoin political environment with Donald Trump’s victory and a pro-bitcoin Congress, the prospect of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and sovereign nations accumulating bitcoin to front-run the United States.

Add to this mix a surge of retail interest and record-setting inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs, and you don't even have to factor in the supportive macro backdrop to understand what drove this explosive 1-day candle:

Bitcoin’s current price action also aligns closely with its historical four-year cycles. So far, bitcoin’s percentage returns are uncannily mirroring its prior two cycles, with this breakout eerily similar to the rallies that followed prior cycle bottoms.

These cycles have a consistent rhythm: accumulation, bull run, blow-off top, and bear market. After 7 months of accumulation and consolidation, bitcoin has clearly and decisively entered the bull run phase. Bitcoin is now up 540% from its cycle bottom, compared to 561% and 525% at this point in its prior two cycles.

If history continues to rhyme, bitcoin will see further upside well into 2025 as momentum continues to build, adoption, institutional, and nation-state inflows accelerate, and financial conditions continue to ease as rates come down, credit spreads narrow, consumers feel relief, and recession is averted for the time being:

Bitcoin has risen 38% over the past month, breaking out of its long-held range at $66,000 to reach $91,000 as of now. For seven months, bitcoin ranged +/- 25%, only to explode out of that range with force, soaring as high as 42% above it in a matter of days. This is classic price discovery behavior—when there are no historical sell levels to anchor market participants, price tends to move rapidly. And now, bitcoin has spent 4 days consolidating around $90,000. Let me repeat that: bitcoin is consolidating around $90,000. This is not a blow-off top. It’s a cooling-off period that will precede another leg higher:

Speaking of ETFs, spot bitcoin ETFs now hold nearly $100 billion in total assets under management, translating to over 1 million BTC—closing in on Satoshi's estimated holdings of 1.1 million BTC. This ETF-driven demand is a game changer. It’s a structural force that didn’t exist in previous cycles, providing consistent and massive buying pressure:

It only took BlackRock's IBIT ETF 211 days to reach $40 billion in assets under management, making it the single-best ETF launch in history, and it's not particularly close:

Bitcoin’s growth is now being measured against the world’s largest assets. At $1.78 trillion, it has overtaken silver and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF to claim the title of the world’s 8th largest asset. It’s now neck and neck with Saudi Aramco, the largest energy company, and is gunning for Google’s spot at $2.1 trillion:

Year-to-date, bitcoin has risen 105%, crushing gold’s 24% gain. Over the past 30 days, the divergence has become even starker—bitcoin is up 35% while gold is down 3.74%:

While some argue that bitcoin is overtaking gold as the preferred store of value, two weeks of price action is not enough to establish a pattern. Rather, this trend of bitcoin absorbing the lion's share of gold's monetary premium is a decades-long process that we are only 15 years into. This recent trend likely relates to the downturn in global M2 money supply, something which gold tracks in real time but bitcoin tracks with a ~10-week delay. Gold has already corrected in line with this trend, and bitcoin could very well follow suit. If it does, we might see a pullback to the mid-$70,000 range before resuming its upward trajectory:

The question is, can retail demand, institutional allocation, and nation-state accumulation buck this potential correction? That remains to be seen.

The long-term trajectory of bitcoin's monetization is becoming increasingly clear. It is gunning for gold. At gold’s current market cap of $17.2 trillion, this implies a roughly 10x increase for bitcoin from here, equating to a price of $895,000 per BTC. Though as bitcoin approaches and surpasses parity with gold, gold’s market cap will likely trend higher as well. If this happens, bitcoin is likely to reach parity with gold at or above $1 million per BTC. This isn’t bullish hyperbole—it’s simple mathematics. Bitcoin serves gold’s function better than gold itself. While gold is relatively scarce, bitcoin is absolutely scarce. Add to that bitcoin’s verifiability, immutable transactions, unchanging supply schedule, and unparalleled portability, and it’s only a matter of time before bitcoin usurps gold as the world’s largest asset.

Financial advisors who ignore bitcoin are neglecting their fiduciary duty, and nations who ignore bitcoin risk being left in the dust as the world's superpower is on the cusp of actively accumulating it. A bubble with a 15-year track record of rising from the ashes is not a bubble at all. The "bitcoin bubble" now only exists in the minds of those who've been awaiting its downfall, only to have their prayers unanswered for 5 cycles and counting. Ignore bitcoin at your own peril.

Take it easy,

Joe Consorti

Theya is the simplest way to take full control of your bitcoin. With our flexible multi-sig vaults, you decide how to secure your keys.

Whether you prefer keeping all keys offline, shared custody with trusted contacts, or robust mobile vaults across multiple devices, it's always Your Keys, Your Bitcoin.

Get started with Theya on the App Store or via our Web App.