Reindustrialization, Reordering, and the Rise of Bitcoin
Theya is the simplest way to take full control of your bitcoin. With our flexible multi-sig vaults, you decide how to secure your keys.
Whether you prefer keeping all keys offline, shared custody with trusted contacts, or robust mobile vaults across multiple devices, it's always Your Keys, Your Bitcoin.
Get started with Theya on the App Store or via our Web App.
Cliff-Notes:
- Trump’s tariff regime is a deliberate reset of global capital flows, designed to re-industrialize America and reprice labor, capital, and prosperity.
- Bitcoin is rising through the chaos, trading like a safe haven in down markets and still rising alongside risk when conditions flip.
- The world is entering a new monetary order, and bitcoin is emerging as its reference point.
Check out today's Theya Research post in video form 👇
The first shot has rung out in the Great American Reshoring War.
A structural shift is underway in the global economy. One that can’t be captured by a dot plot or inflation forecast, and certainly not by the recency-biased heuristics of Wall Street analysts. What we’re living through isn’t a pivot or a simple trade war that can be measured in weeks or months. It’s a political and monetary realignment of global capital flows, engineered not by central bankers, but by the executive branch of the United States.
The reciprocal tariff regime unveiled by Trump in early April wasn’t simply to punish bad actors or even to close the trade deficit on its own, it was to lay the groundwork for a fundamentally different global economy, where the US is no longer subsidizing the rest of the world’s consumption at the expense of its own productive base.
Virtually every country on earth, barring Canada, Mexico, Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, has had tariffs levied on it, even those uninhabited by people. The second-order effect of levying these tariffs is to get many or all of these countries to repeal their own tariffs or strike a better deal for the United States.
While President Trump has introduced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs above the new 10% baseline, the looming prospect of the tariffs is already having a sizeable impact. The dollar is softening, and domestic production is returning at the margin, with companies announcing left and right that they plan on either building new stateside plants or ramping up production at their existing US plants.
This is happening in the midst of a broader storm, and any system-wide transition must come with pain. Wall Street is hurting. The S&P is bleeding. But this isn’t dysfunction, it’s by design. The White House is pushing through the fallout. Because beneath the noise, there’s a clear and emerging signal: capital is being repriced, and individual prosperity and sovereignty are the new metrics by which we'd like to gauge our nation's health, not GDP.
America no longer wants to fund the global economy at the expense of its own.
Since Bretton Woods, the US dollar has operated as the world’s reserve currency, a role that gave the US its “exorbitant privilege”, the ability to fund itself in its own currency and set the terms of global trade. But it also came with the core contradiction of the Triffin dilemma: in order to supply the world with the dollars it needs, the US must run persistent trade deficits, exporting demand at the cost of domestic industry. It worked for decades. But that bargain no longer makes sense. America doesn’t want to keep hemorrhaging jobs to fund foreign FX reserves. It doesn’t want to be the world’s consumer of last resort. And it certainly doesn’t want to rely on foreign buyers to roll trillions in short-term debt.
That dynamic is now being challenged. To his doubters, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs may seem like a knee-jerk trade maneuver on their face, but they're actually a fiscal signal. They aim to shrink the trade deficit and re-anchor US demand domestically, without formally devaluing the dollar or slashing rates. The idea: limit imports, reshore production, and reroute capital back into Treasuries.
At first, it seemed to be working. The 10-year yield dropped from 4.13% to just under 4.00% after the tariff announcement. But by April 7th, the move violently reversed, spiking over 16bps in one session, one of the largest intraday swings in nearly three decades. Now at 4.37%, the curve has steepened sharply, and traders are bracing for weak demand in long-end auctions over the next several months.
This is the messy middle of Trump’s strategy. By injecting volatility into trade and geopolitics, the administration hoped to suppress long-end yields without Fed involvement—a stealth form of YCC, executed through fiscal disruption. But foreign holders are pushing back, and the synthetic bid for US debt is faltering.
Still, the goal hasn’t changed. As Treasury Secretary Bessent put it in a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, “My job is to be the bond salesman for the United States.” The administration wants to normalize America’s debt profile, extend its duration, and build a domestic bid strong enough to replace the global one. That process will be volatile, and it’s already underway.
For decades, America was treated like an open-air economic zone—a strip mall with an airport attached. Countries extracted value from free access to the American consumer. They got jobs, industry, and surpluses. We got cheap goods and structural unemployment.
April 2nd, 2025, “Liberation Day,” as Trump called it, marked the end of that era.
In a 40-minute livestream, the President unveiled a sweeping tariff structure covering 185 countries. This wasn’t framed as a negotiation, but rather the execution of a clear mandate from the American voters. If you tax US goods at 40%, we’ll tax yours at 20%.
Vietnam almost immediately offered to drop all tariffs on US goods. Taiwan and the EU followed. Even China is now on the verge of striking a deal. But the White House held firm. This isn’t about balance. If it were, our retaliatory tariffs would match theirs rather than being 50% of theirs. It’s about reordering global production in favor of American labor. For the first time since Bretton Woods, access to the US consumer is a weapon being wielded by the Executive Branch in order to protect them rather than wantonly exploit them.
Since 2001, we’ve lost 3.82 million jobs to the China trade deficit. Government jobs replaced manufacturing, paid for by debt and printed money, not productivity. We exported dollars rather than goods, and imported fragility.
We now rely on others for the core infrastructure of a modern economy: semiconductors, medicines, medical supplies, and industrial equipment. What used to be made in Detroit is now made in Guangdong. The public has had enough.
We were promised that globalism would make everyone richer, but the top quintile hoarded assets while the bottom three lost bargaining power, family stability, and upward mobility. Liberation Day was the first step in reshoring sovereignty and individual prosperity to American civilians after decades of exporting it abroad.
So the White House isn’t flinching as equities drop. Their job isn’t to preserve index levels, it’s to rebuild the economy. As Secretary Bessent put it:
“The equity market selloff is a Mag7 problem, not a MAGA problem.”
Legendary Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker let unemployment rise to kill inflation. Trump’s willing to let multinationals bleed to bring industry home. Nike, punished by a 46% tariff that destroyed its labor-cost arbitrage, only rebounded after Vietnam came to Trump, asking for a deal. GM is also greatly expanding domestic production in Indiana.
Reshoring is happening. Capital is moving. Boardrooms are recalculating. Political risk now lives inside cost-of-goods-sold models, and companies without a major domestic footprint are getting repriced unless their host governments make the trip to Washington.
The American public understands what’s happening, even if the market doesn’t. They voted for a reversal of the trade policies that hollowed out their towns, stole their jobs, and outsourced their industry so shareholders of multinationals could add a few thousand square feet onto their homes down the Cape. They didn’t vote for the Nasdaq. They voted for a country that makes things again.
The endgame of all of this is a labor market rooted in production rather than paperwork, a flatter yield curve funded by savers rather than foreign speculators, and a standard of living based on earned surplus rather than deficit spending.
It won’t be smooth, but if sustained, this is the kind of shift that makes a post-income-tax America possible, where government is funded not by financial extraction, but by real growth at home. The strip mall era is over, and the early innings of what will become the new global economic order are underway.
And this brings us to bitcoin, the emerging center of the new monetary paradigm.
Bitcoin is straddling two worlds. It still benefits when risk assets pump, but at $2 trillion, it now trades like gold when markets fall apart. Its historical beta with risk assets hasn’t disappeared, but something has changed. Bitcoin is beginning to behave like the monetary constant its properties have always allowed it to be.
We’ve been seeing it since the first shot of the Great American Reshoring War on April 2nd. While equity markets have slid and volatility has erupted, bitcoin has risen above the chaos. It’s up 9.46% since tariffs were announced, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both down 6.7%, and gold, traditionally the safe haven in a storm, is up a comparatively small 6.41%. Bitcoin is outperforming everything.
Bitcoin is digital gold, making it the chief beneficiary of the changing global economic order, but its historical correlations mean it will also rip if and when markets flip risk-on.
And this isn’t just a post-tariff fluke. Bitcoin has also outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq since the start of the year and since election day. Back in February and March of 2020, during the COVID crash, bitcoin plunged 35% peak-to-trough, compared to a 27% drawdown in the S&P and 22% in the Nasdaq. This time, it’s ripping as those same assets bleed, by several orders of magnitude.
On several individual days this month, bitcoin has risen while risk assets sold off. Another $10 trillion in market cap from now, bitcoin's correlation with the risk-on bucket will be a distant memory:
This may not be the start of a structural decoupling, but it's absolutely a window into how bitcoin will ultimately trade. Price is truth, after all, and during times of crisis, assets, like people, show you who they really are.
Bitcoin is the single most asymmetric trade in financial markets today, if not of all time. Its monetary properties allow it to be the least correlated asset in history, and its continued monetization is also a fulfillment of this destiny.
Bitcoin continues tracking the global M2 measure of money supply to a stunning degree. It’s now following the $110-trillion money supply with just a 70-day lag. Gold still moves first, given its enormous size and comparatively vast distribution, but bitcoin is catching up fast.
This isn’t random. It’s a function of market structure. When central banks increase reserves and ease credit conditions, M2 expands. While M2 is certainly not the best measure of total money supply, and it doesn't measure liquidity, the capacity of capital, it does an effective job at capturing bitcoin's ability to perform as the apex hedge against global monetary debasement. I knew this when I first kicked off this trend by making this chart last August, and it holds true to this day.
Gold moves first because it’s widely held, deeply embedded in central bank balance sheets, and already fully monetized. Then comes bitcoin, which is smaller, less distributed, and still undergoing monetization, but moves harder when it reacts after its longer delay.
The lag is shrinking and the correlation is tightening because bitcoin's monetization process is accelerating. Spot ETFs have helped, but more importantly, global macro conditions are making bitcoin look less like a speculative high-beta risk trade and more like the future base layer of global financial markets. If bitcoin keeps this up, it's a quick trip to $135,000 over the next few months:
Gold is now a $22 trillion asset, 1/5 the size of the global M2 money supply. The election sparked a safe-haven rally that extended through the inauguration and accelerated on the tariff announcement.
Note that the gap between global M2 and gold has completely collapsed over the last few months, both in time and distance. This is what's in store for bitcoin as it continues to monetize from $2 trillion to gold parity and beyond:
Bitcoin's move above $90,000 has been sharp, but again, it’s not happening without reason, and it's not happening in a vacuum. It has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. As the dollar softens, bitcoin has rocketed from ~$75,000 up to over $93,000 in just a matter of weeks. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining:
Secretary Bessent called the current tariff war with China “unsustainable,” and Bloomberg’s coverage of those remarks sent the S&P 500 up 2.5%. Bitcoin responded, too, to a much larger degree. The market read it as pro-growth, and in this macro regime, bitcoin is positioned to benefit most from this blend of inflation, expansion, and uncertainty.
That positioning isn’t lost on policymakers. Bo Hines, a senior White House official, is floating the idea of the US selling gold reserves to buy bitcoin, a portfolio rotation that would be budget-neutral under the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve order signed last month. Nothing is confirmed, but the direction of thought is clear: bitcoin isn’t being viewed as a high-beta lever anymore; it’s being positioned as pristine, sovereign-grade collateral, because it is.
Bitcoin’s monetary properties allow it to be the least correlated asset in the history of the world, and it’s finally beginning to trade that way. It remains to be seen if this three-week period is transient or a signpost of legitimate macro change in bitcoin’s cross-asset correlations.
Wall Street is bleeding, and bitcoin is rising above all through the chaos. It is finally behaving in the way that its monetary properties have always allowed it to: the asset that you always want to own, in good times, and especially during turbulent ones.
Bitcoin has outperformed every other major macro asset since the start of the year. It’s broken new highs in dollar terms and in equity-relative terms. It’s up on days when risk assets fall. And it’s doing all of this while rate volatility spikes and Treasury auctions wobble.
The center of the monetary universe is up for grabs, and bitcoin is making its case.
Secretary Bessent has already said what most won’t: the next few years are likely to feature a global monetary overhaul, an economic reordering on the scale of Bretton Woods.
This time, though, there will be no gold peg. No fixed exchange rates. No unquestioned US hegemony. This time, every participant will come with their own agenda, and the scramble for monetary credibility will be a zero-sum game. The world will need a neutral reserve asset. Gold is slow. The dollar is political. US Treasuries depend on trust. Bitcoin doesn’t have these problems.
Bitcoin’s positive correlation with risk assets was always temporary; now it is conditional.
Its monetary properties have always allowed it to be the least correlated asset in history. Now that global economic turbulence has arrived, bitcoin at $2 trillion is being traded like the least-sinkable ship. Once the turbulence subsides, bitcoin still stands to rise right alongside risk. A monetary constant in the making.
The Fourth Turning is here. The global economic order is shifting. The Treasury is trying to reclaim policy primacy from the Fed. And bitcoin—silent, incorruptible, unyielding—is being repriced as the final benchmark in a system that has run out of anchors.
It was never just a hedge. Bitcoin is on its way to becoming the monetary reference point for the new world that’s being built.
Until next time,
Joe Consorti
Theya is the simplest way to take full control of your bitcoin. With our flexible multi-sig vaults, you decide how to secure your keys.
Whether you prefer keeping all keys offline, shared custody with trusted contacts, or robust mobile vaults across multiple devices, it's always Your Keys, Your Bitcoin.