Bitcoin Soars 10% as Trump's Election Odds Rise 10 Points
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Before we begin, my prayers go out to the victims of Saturday's tragic event.
the cliff-notes:
- Trump's election odds soared by 10 points to 67% following the attempted assassination, while Bitcoin's price jumped 2.5% in 15 minutes.
- Bitcoin's market price and Trump's election odds have been moving in tandem, with Bitcoin rising a total of 9.36% since the attack.
- Assets like banks and oil are up, while solar and cannabis are down, as markets react to the increased likelihood of a Trump victory.
Check out today's Theya Research post in video form 👇
Trump's election odds soared following Saturday's attempted assassination in Butler, PA. They jumped all the way from 57% to 67%—a huge 10-point move that happened in the span of just 15 minutes.
In the same 15 minutes, bitcoin's market price jumped by 2.5%. In the days since the attack, Trump's odds of re-election in November have stayed at 67% and bitcoin has risen a total of 9.36%, almost the same size move as Trump's odds.
Why is BTC moving in lockstep with Trump's election odds?
Trump has vowed to make the United States a Bitcoin powerhouse. Just as other bitcoin proxies like Microstrategy move in tandem with bitcoin's price, so too is price moving in tandem with Trump's likelihood of a second term. Given that his bitcoin strategy will be implemented once he's in office, this is just a preview of what's to come for bitcoin's market price as we approach November, move into the January inauguration, and into his 4-year term as President.
Bitcoin's market price is moving higher in anticipation of a Trump victory, so ostensibly, a Trump presidency will serve as a tailwind for its market price, too:
It's not just bitcoin either. Several assets across markets are pricing in a Trump victory now that they have opened back up for the week.
At the industry level, the losers are:
- Solar is down 5.5%
- Cannabis is down 1.5%
- Alternative energy is down 1%
The winners are:
- Banks are up 2.8%
- Oil & Gas is up 2.3%
- Trucking is up 2%
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. stock $DJT soared more than 40% at market open, and is now roughly 30% higher on the day:
The presidential election odds haven't been this disparate since the 2016 election between Clinton and Trump, where she was polling above 70% at roughly this time during the race. So it's not impossible for Biden to make the gains necessary to win the White House again, but ceteris paribus, Trump is on a far more favorable path than the incumbent.
As it relates to what we care about, bitcoin, this is very good news. Joe Biden and much of the democrat party, such as Elizabeth Warren, have had an avowedly anti-bitcoin policy stance for several years. They have pushed through legislation to restrict business development and make it less feasible for bitcoin-native companies, whether on the mining or finance side, to build in the United States. Donald Trump, offering the exact opposite stance, one that will encourage all of the world's talent to build on bitcoin in the United States, is the candidate everybody working for the advancement of bitcoin should be supporting:
President Trump will be speaking at The Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. We will also be there from July 25th to the 27th—stop by our booth, say hello, and check out all of the remarkable features we've been working on to make Theya the world's simplest bitcoin self-custody solution.
And don't forget to enter our ticket giveaway for The Bitcoin Conference, found on our X profile. The winner will be announced soon, so don't forget to enter!
Final thought: the armor of God is impenetrable.
Take it easy,
Joe Consorti
Theya is the world's simplest Bitcoin self-custody solution. With our modular multi-sig vaults, you decide how to hold your keys.
Whether you want all your keys offline, shared custody with trusted contacts, or robust mobile vaults across multiple iPhones, it's Your Keys, Your Bitcoin.
Download Theya on the App Store.